strategic pulse – independent analysis of NATO geopolitics and economics

Why Leaving NATO would be a mistake

The current president of the United States has never been in favor of NATO. If you read the ad he took out in the New York Times in 1987, the rhetoric is already there. The topic might not be the same, back then he was ranting against Japan and Saudi Arabia, but the framing is the same. It’s the same he is using today: the United States is being ripped off, and the allies are laughing at the US. The allies need it more than we do, we should get out of it.

On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, targeting military and government sites, assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other Iranian officials, and inflicting civilian casualties. For an isolationist, it’s a rather surprising move. In response, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz thereby cutting off 20% to 25% of the world’s oil supply as well as other energy sources. The President then asked NATO allies, mainly Europeans to help secure the Strait. They mostly refused. On the 28^th of March, the President Trump declared: “NATO wasn’t there for us. We send billions of dollars to them every year to protect them. We would have always been there for them. But based on their actions, I guess we don’t have to be, do we?”

Since its founding in 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been more than just a military alliance; it’s a cornerstone of trans‑Atlantic security, a forum for political cooperation, and a guarantor of shared democratic values. As for as I know on the Iran war specifically – but also on previous military operations such as Maduro’s arrest, the striking of boats in the Caribbean or the first round of strikes with Israel – there hasn’t been a lot of political cooperation between the USA and the rest of the allies. On the opposite, it threatened the integrity of Canada and Greenland, putting the rest of the member in an un-easy situation.  

In 2025, the US share of NATO defense expenditure was 60%. Two thirds. You see 3 planes in the sky, two of them are American. Yet it is precisely thanks to the North Atlantic Treaty that there are three planes in the sky; if the US left NATO, suddenly the force multiplier it enjoys would disappear. You’ve got two planes and that is it. Right now the United States commands virtually the biggest and best armed coalition in the world. The fact that it couldn’t muster the rest of the alliance is not a military problem or an economic one, it would seem it was rather a diplomatic one, after all most the allies still went to Irak. With 60% they have a controlling interest; it’s like you own the whole thing. But outside of NATO, the US would remain the best equipped and largest force of the planet, but it would not be as dominant anymore.

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